COMMODITY PRICES
Current copper price: Price, development & forecast for 2026
10.03.2026
Copper will remain one of the most strategically sensitive metals for Procurement in 2026. Three questions are currently crucial for procurement teams in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland: Where does the LME price stand? What does the build-up of inventories mean? And how strongly will tariffs and supply risks continue to affect the market? Updated every two weeks.
price history
The LME price is the global benchmark. For actual purchase prices, forming, semi-finished product logic, supplier surcharges, logistics, and, if applicable, currency must be added.
AT A GLANCE
- Copper remains expensive: LME Copper Cash is currently at US$12,750.50/t. This is down 1.8% on the previous month, but up 33.6% on the previous year. The market is no longer at its peak, but remains well above last year's levels.
- The bottleneck has eased somewhat: LME stocks have risen from 174,675 t to 284,325 t since the beginning of February (+55.1%). For the coming weeks, this suggests a high price level, but not necessarily a further surge. At the same time, the market remains supported by US tariff uncertainty and a structurally tight supply of concentrate.
- Particularly exposed: Categories a high copper content, especially cables, busbars, transformers, wound products, motors, inverters, power electronics, and charging infrastructure. In these areas, the copper price usually has a faster and more direct impact on calculations.
Contents
What is driving the price right now?
The situation for copper is currently mixed: the acute pressure has eased somewhat, but the structural drivers have not disappeared. This is precisely why the market remains difficult for buyers: there is less panic than in January, but the level remains high with a lot of political and fundamental influence.
The US tariff issue is keeping prices below market value
Uncertainty surrounding possible US tariffs on refined copper is seen as a key short-term driver. Until it is clear whether and when these tariffs will be imposed, stocks will be brought forward to the US and trade flows will shift. This is keeping the LME price higher than the fundamentals alone would suggest. A clear decision could mark a stronger turning point in the middle of the year.
The build-up of inventories is easing the market, but only partially
The sharp rise in LME stocks since the beginning of February is an important sign of relief. For buyers, this means that not every supplier argument based on "acute scarcity" is currently as strong as it was four weeks ago. At the same time, the build-up of stocks is not enough to make the market cheap again. The price level is too strongly influenced by US stockpiling and geopolitical uncertainty for that.
The supply side remains structurally tight
The record prices are not only related to trade policy. The fees that smelters receive for processing copper concentrate have fallen to a record low; the annual benchmark for 2026 was US$0/t, and spot values have even been negative since 2024. Behind this lies a real imbalance: smelting capacities, especially in China, have grown faster than the available supply of concentrate. Even if inventories rise in the short term, copper remains a market with a tight supply base in the background.
Future demand from electrification and data centers supports sentiment
In addition, expectations regarding AI and data center investments are cited as a factor that has bolstered market sentiment. While this is not an immediate weekly factor for industrial procurement in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, it is another reason why many market participants no longer view copper as a classic cyclical commodity.
Germany provides tailwind, but is not the main driver
The German Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9 in February. This helps Categories copper, such as electronics, mechanical engineering, and energy distribution. Unlike steel, however, the European economic stimulus is currently only a secondary driver for copper. The bigger picture is shaped by tariffs, stock movements, and supply bottlenecks.
What does this mean specifically for Procurement Germany, Austria, and Switzerland?
Separate price components
Forcopper-containing components, the LME base price, copper surcharge, forming, manufacturing, FX, and logistics should be queried separately. This breakdown is particularly worthwhile in an expensive market that is no longer acutely scarce.
Prioritize Categories a high metal content
Cables, busbars, transformers, wound products, electric motors, inverters, and charging infrastructure are currently particularlyexposed. The copper content in these products is high enough that even small market movements quickly translate into unit prices or renegotiations.
Don't just accept every explanation for scarcity
In price negotiations, thestockpiling provides a counterargument to blanket references to "extreme market scarcity." High price levels remain plausible, but blanket surcharges without a distinction between raw materials and processing are less plausible.
Examine index clauses and reset logic more closely
With copper in particular, it is worth taking a close look at which reference price is used, at what intervals adjustments are made, and whether suppliers clearly separate the metal value from their own added value.
What is currently plausible in negotiations and what you should examine separately
High prices for copper remain plausible on the raw materials side. Goldman Sachs continues to point to uncertainty surrounding possible US tariffs on refined copper, and the IEA also describes a structurally tense concentrate side with extremely low or negative TC/RCs. This supports the argument that copper remains expensive as a commodity, even if the market is no longer at the high it reached at the beginning of the year.
However, you should separately examine any justification based on acute scarcity across the entire value chain. LME stocks have risen significantly since the beginning of February. This does not mean that copper will become cheap, but it does mean that not every blanket argument of scarcity is still equally valid. In price negotiations, the LME basis, copper surcharge, processing, manufacturing, and FX effect should therefore be shown separately.
classification
For the next few weeks, copper will be more of an issue due to high prices and high uncertainty than due to an acute emergency. This shifts the leverage in negotiations: less reaction to panic, more focus on index, surcharges, and timing.
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Copper price forecast: Assessment by our Procurement Intelligence Team
base case scenario
Over the next 4 to 6 weeks, we expect the market to remain high but move sideways or weaken slightly. This is supported by the significant build-up of inventories. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding US tariffs is preventing prices from falling quickly and significantly. From today's perspective, a market just below or around the current level is the most likely scenario.
risk scenario
The upside risk increases if inventories start to decline again, additional mine or smelter disruptions occur, or the US tariff decision is further delayed, thereby prolonging stockpiling. In this case, despite the recent easing, the market would once again move toward its recent highs.
Related commodity prices
Related topics in the purchasing glossary
Frequently asked questions
Whether they actually move in parallel with the commodities market or whether they rise independently of it. Especially when LME levels are high, it is worthwhile to make a clear distinction between metal value and processing, because otherwise a rise in commodity prices is monetized twice.
Then, when the raw material share is high and market movements are quickly reflected in the calculation. In the current environment, clear index clauses with defined reset logic are often more resilient than fixed prices, in which suppliers price in their uncertainty via hidden risk premiums.
Rising inventories are a sign of relief, but not yet a trend reversal. As long as tariff uncertainty, trade shifts, and supply risks support the market, copper may remain expensive, even though the inventory situation is improving.
