COMMODITY PRICES
Current nickel price: price, development & forecast for 2026
10.03.2026
Nickel is a contradictory market in 2026: politically supported upside risk on the one hand, high inventories and an expected surplus on the other. For Procurement Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, the most important factor is how strongly nickel actually impacts stainless steel and alloy prices. Updated every two weeks.
price history
For many buyers, nickel has an indirect effect—primarily through stainless steel, alloy surcharges, and special materials. The LME price is therefore relevant, but never the entire pricing logic.
AT A GLANCE
- Nickel is stronger, but there is no shortage in the market: LME nickel cash is currently at US$17,290.00/t. This is +1.4% compared to the previous month and +5.3% compared to the previous year. At the same time, LME stocks stand at 287,550 t, which is +44.2% above the previous year. This argues against a simple narrative of scarcity.
- Outlook: Our Procurement Intelligence Team expects prices to remain stable or rise slightly in the coming weeks, rather than rallying strongly. Indonesia's quota discipline is supporting the market, but high inventories and a continued expected surplus are limiting movement.
- Particularly exposed: Categories in which nickel primarily acts via stainless steel and special alloys. These include tanks, pipes, fittings, valves, fasteners, apparatus engineering, and other corrosion-critical components.
Contents
What is driving the price right now?
Nickel is currently the most difficult market to read of the three. The price trend is being supported upwards by Indonesia, while high inventories and the surplus situation are pulling in the opposite direction. For buyers, this means that suppliers have arguments for higher surcharges, but not for across-the-board price increases.
Indonesia remains the most important short-term lever
The market is almost entirely focused on Indonesia. The joint venture PT Weda Bay Nickel is initially only to apply to the Indonesian authorities for a production and sales volume of 12 Mwmt for 2026, after 32 Mwmt initially and later 42 Mwmt in 2025. The background to this policy is explicitly to control market balance and price levels. This is currently the most important reason why nickel is not falling more sharply.
At the same time, the market remains fundamentally oversupplied.
Nickel is expected to remain under pressure from oversupply in 2026. Although Indonesian policy is the key upward lever, the market as a whole remains well supplied thanks to additional volumes from Indonesia. This is crucial for purchasing practices: it explains why nickel may become firmer, but why strong surcharge demands are not automatically entirely plausible.
High inventories limit the rally
LME stocks are high and virtually unchanged compared to last month. This takes pressure off the market. In other words, nickel is not currently a metal for which Procurement needs to argue Procurement immediate physical scarcity. This clearly distinguishes nickel from aluminum and, to some extent, copper.
In the long term, concentration remains a risk
The geographical concentration in nickel will continue to increase. Based on the current project pipeline, the top three producing countries would account for around 85% of the market in 2035, up from 75% in 2024. This will not necessarily change the price over the next two weeks, but it is strategically relevant for industrial procurement because dependencies will continue to grow.
Nickel usually has an indirect effect on DACH
For many buyers in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, nickel is not a direct raw material purchase, but rather a price factor in stainless steel and special alloys. This is precisely why every price justification should be clearly broken down: How much is actually nickel, how much is surcharges, how much is processing, and how much is pure supplier policy?
What does this mean specifically for Procurement Germany, Austria, and Switzerland?
Separate nickel surcharge and base material
Forstainless steel and special alloys, the nickel content, alloy surcharge, base material price, processing, and logistics should be shown separately. Especially in the current market, this is the most important lever against blanket increases.
Realistically check Categories
This development is particularlyrelevant for tanks, pipes, valves, fittings, fasteners, and other corrosion-critical stainless steel components. In these areas, nickel can actually drive up costs. For products that contain less nickel, the direct effect is often smaller than suppliers suggest.
Don't automatically pass on every story about Indonesia
Indonesia'spolicy supports the market, but high inventories and the expected surplus provide a strong counterbalance in price negotiations. The strong message for Procurement currently not "nickel is scarce," but rather "nickel has upside risk, but no free pass for blanket surcharges."
Check supplier arguments at material level
With stainless steel in particular, it is worth asking which grade is affected, how high the actual nickel content is, and which surcharge mechanism has been contractually agreed. This allows you to distinguish genuine market movements from opportunistic price increases.
What is currently plausible in negotiations and what you should examine separately
A certain upward pressure from Indonesia is currently plausible for nickel. Eramet has confirmed that PT Weda Bay Nickel will initially only be approved for significantly lower production and sales volumes in 2026 than in the previous year. This is a real market stimulus and a comprehensible argument for nickel not falling further.
However, you should check separately any flat-rate surcharges for stainless steel or alloys. LME nickel stocks remain high, and ING continues to expect a surplus market in 2026. For Procurement , this Procurement a supplier can refer to Indonesia, but this does not automatically mean that every surcharge is fully justified. Especially in the case of stainless steel, it is worth asking how high the actual nickel content in the material is and what surcharge mechanism has actually been agreed in the contract.
classification
Nickelis currently not a market for alarm, but a market for careful examination. The correct response in Procurement not to rush ahead, but to consistently break down surcharges and material logic.
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Nickel price forecast: Assessment by our Procurement Intelligence Team
base case scenario
Over the next 4 to 6 weeks, we expect the nickel market to remain stable or strengthen slightly. Indonesia's quota discipline is keeping prices from falling, but high inventories and the surplus situation are preventing the market from rising unchecked.
risk scenario
The relevant risk lies on the upside if Indonesia further tightens supply discipline or the market prices in the quota leverage more strongly than before. In this case, surcharges in nickel-intensive stainless steel and alloy applications would come under particular pressure.
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Related topics in the purchasing glossary
Frequently asked questions
Where suppliers want to pass on rising nickel prices directly and in full, even though stocks are high and the market remains fundamentally oversupplied. Those who separate surcharges, base materials, and other cost components gain room for negotiation here.
More than from any other single source. The cuts at Weda Bay and at the state level show that Indonesia can actively control supply. This is precisely where the key upside risk for nickel currently lies.
Then, when the actual nickel content, the contractual surcharge mechanism, and the current market environment all align. In the current market, high inventories and the expected oversupply are valid counterarguments against flat-rate or excessive surcharges.
