What is driving the price right now?

The current price increase is not an isolated event, but rather the result of several factors acting in parallel. The following drivers explain why the market has moved in this direction since the last update.

Imports are more difficult for many buyers to calculate

CBAM has been in force in its definitive form since January 1, 2026. For steel imports into the EU, it is therefore less often sufficient to compare only the base price. CO₂ costs, documentation, delivery time, and risk are becoming more important factors. At the same time, the EU is already working on a new protective instrument that is set to replace the existing steel protection measures from July 2026.

This is now also evident in the market. According to Fastmarkets, buyers report that new import offers are becoming scarcer and more difficult to calculate for deliveries from the summer onwards. At the same time, the trilogue process for the successor regime from July 1, 2026, is already underway. The effect for European procurers is clear: the counteroffer from imports is losing its edge, precisely at a time when European plants are keeping their price demands high.

Industry in Germany is stabilizing

The German purchasing managers' index for industry rose above the 50 mark again in February. This is not a sign of a boom, but it is enough to make it easier for factories to push through price demands than was the case just a few months ago. In the case of flat steel in particular, even a slight stabilization in demand quickly has an impact on price negotiations.

It is important to understand the situation correctly: the market is not currently rising because end demand has suddenly become strong. Rather, Fastmarkets reports that service centers and stockists are securing materials again because they expect further price increases, even though real consumption has not improved to the same extent. For buyers, this means that the market is stronger, but not because all end markets are suddenly performing well. This is important for negotiations because it means that not every supplier argument based on "strong demand" is automatically plausible.

Energy and freight risks (Iran conflict)

Higher oil and gas costs and uncertain trade routes are weighing on the cost base of European steel production. CRU currently identifies this effect as a key risk for the entire steel value chain.

The market reaction is now clearly visible. Fastmarkets reports that the gas price in Europe was over €50/MWh on March 5, up from just €30–34/MWh in February. At the same time, some shipments from Asia to Europe are again being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, which extends transit time by around two weeks. This is particularly relevant for buyers of cold-rolled strip and galvanized material, as these products are currently particularly affected by the combination of scarce short-term availability and higher energy costs.

The global market remains the counterbalance

Despite the current upward factors, the global market remains oversupplied. The OECD expects global overcapacity to rise to 721 million tons by 2027. This limits how far European prices can rise. For buyers, this means there is room for upward movement, but not unlimited.

Where the movement is first becoming apparent

Cold-rolled strip and galvanized flat steel

Prices hereare currently rising faster than in the broad steel basket. Several suppliers were already sold out for May at the beginning of March; in the Benelux market, there were even reports of HDG quantities for June being sold out.

Categories a high proportion of sheet metal

Currently, enclosure technology, switchgear construction, cable management, ventilation technology, and coated exterior components are particularlyaffected.

Short-term requirements

Those whodepend on short offer periods, reorders, or low inventory coverage feel market movements earlier than buyers with stable contracts.