Rising tariffs, political escalations and increasing uncertainty in global supply chains - the trade war between the US, China and the EU is picking up speed again in 2025. With the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the announcement of comprehensive tariff increases for Asian and European products, German industrial companies are also under increasing pressure. For procurement in the SME sector, the question is more urgent than ever: how do we remain capable of acting if geopolitical tensions become a permanent reality?
During the webinar, Fabian Liebscher and Torben Hinrichs from Tacto highlighted both the political causes and the concrete effects on purchasing processes - and showed how companies can respond with systematic risk management, digital transparency and a strategic realignment of sourcing.
Tariffs are not a new invention, but their function as an instrument of political power is once again gaining in importance. The US is deliberately using punitive tariffs to reduce trade deficits, promote domestic production and increase its negotiating power with China, the EU and other partners. The consequence: an exponential increase in the tariff burden - according to the Fitch forecast, the effective US tariff rates are already at 22% and could reach historic highs in 2025.
For companies, this means rising prices for imported raw materials, longer delivery times and serious planning uncertainty in procurement. Globalized supply networks, as are standard in German mechanical engineering or the automotive industry, are particularly affected. But regionally oriented SMEs must also react - because they too are feeling the indirect effects of price increases, for example from their tier 1 suppliers.
A central aspect of the webinar was the game-theoretical classification of the current conflict. The introduction of tariffs is often understood as a rational act in the sense of a short-term advantage - similar to the well-known prisoner's dilemma. However, this strategy usually leads to an equilibrium with low overall welfare, as both parties take protectionist measures and the mutual damage increases.
In practice, this means that as long as there is no stable cooperation between economic areas, volatile framework conditions are to be expected. Purchasing must adapt to this - not only operationally, but also strategically.
The webinar makes it clear that proactive purchasing organizations can use the current crisis as a starting point for a future-proof positioning. The focus should be on three directions:
In an environment that can change fundamentally within days, traditional procurement planning is no longer enough. Companies need real-time information in order to be able to react quickly and effectively to geopolitical developments. This is exactly where modern digital purchasing platforms come in.
Solutions such as Tacto enable complex supply networks to be made transparent, customs risks to be made visible down to item level and cost trends to be simulated under various scenarios. Not only can potential bottlenecks be identified at an early stage, but targeted measures can also be derived - such as building up safety stocks for critical product groups, targeting alternative suppliers or evaluating nearshoring potential.
The big advantage: Purchasing not only gains speed, but also depth in its decision-making. Strategic decisions such as dual sourcing or make-or-buy analyses are no longer based on gut feeling, but on reliable, up-to-date data. In times of global uncertainty, operational reaction becomes strategic resilience.
The new trade war will not hit companies with full force - if they are prepared. Those who create transparency about supply chains, origins and incoterms and adapt sourcing strategies can not only minimize risks, but also take advantage of opportunities. Medium-sized companies in particular should take the current situation as an opportunity to restructure their purchasing organization digitally and strategically.
Geopolitical tensions are more likely to increase than decrease in the near future. Protectionist measures could also increase in Europe. At the same time, regulatory pressure in the area of sustainability (CBAM, CSRD) is growing, adding further complexity to global procurement. Companies that invest in digital transparency and strategic sourcing now will secure long-term resilience - and competitive advantages.